The Prospect Of Recognizing The Armenian Genocide

(Vardan Grigoryan - Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia Oct 4 2007)

The issue of recognizing the Armenian Genocide is again in the
focus of the European and American legislators' attention and has
already been included in the agenda of EU-Turkey and EU- United
States relations. Simultaneously, Armenia and Turkey have entered
into interstate negotiations, the first signal of such negotiations
being the October 2 meeting between both countries' Foreign Ministers
held in the United States.

It is noteworthy that the US House of Foreign Affairs Committee will
discuss Resolution #106 on October 10, just a week after the meeting
between V. Oskanyan and A. Babajan.

It is also necessary to bear in mind that the European Union will
resume the negotiations with Turkey during the coming months, and the
outcome is expected to be achieved on December 14. In this context,
Ankara is receiving new and new signals, admonitions and demands
from the United States in favor of the policy of opening its borders
with Armenia and in general - leaving our country out of the regional
project.

Thus, the official Ankara is again becoming faced with the fact of
the existence of Armenian Issue.

And although the Turks are trying to sidestep the issue by using
their characteristic persistence, during "internal discussions" they
do confess their own country's defeat on the international arena. In
the meantime, there is an increasing number of Turkish politicians and
experts who demand that their authorities distinguish the international
aspects of the Armenian Issue from the Armenian-Turkish bilateral
relations, and for that purpose they deem it necessary to initiate
a direct dialogue with Armenia and open the border.

That's why, during the upcoming months while the US House of Foreign
Affairs Committee is discussing the Resolution and submitting it to
the final decision of the plenary session, Turkey will have to make
a difficult choice. After all, which is more advantageous to it?

The American legislators' recognizing the Armenian Genocide or speeding
up the dialogue with Armenia and opening the borders?

Judging the official Ankara's attitude, Turkey is trying to use
some trick with the purpose of excluding the Armenian Issue from
the agenda of Congress. And the appeals addressed to Nancy Pelosy,
Speaker of the House of Representatives, by the former US Senators
and former Heads of the defense sphere are the successive evidence
of this fact. The "unexpected appearance" of such documents can be
considered an attempt of torpedoing the October 10 discussions to be
held in the US House of Foreign Affairs Committee.

However, bringing the Armenian-Turkish relations in compliance with
the minimum standards required for a country seeking EU membership
in the 21st century is, in some sense, an imperative of time. And
it is impossible to delay the solution to this problem either for
the sake of Azerbaijan's alliance with Turkey or for the sake of
realizing the unrealizable goal of extorting unilateral confessions
from Armenia. It is obvious that in view of the inevitability of
resuming the negotiations with the European Union and the existence
of the clear signals received by the United States, the present-day
Turkish authorities, being moderately Islamic, will be forced to
mitigate their attitudes towards Armenia.

Therefore, the positive or negative solutions to the problem will be
greatly dependant upon the attitude of the Army which has the power of
"pronouncing its final word" in the country and which has always been
the fundamental and irreconcilable opponent of opening the borders
with Armenia and de-blockading our country.

We believe that the command of the Turkish Army and the whole "in-depth
state" can make some provocative steps inside their own country in an
attempt to assume the role of an "advocate" of the Turkish diplomacy
who holds no office and who loses the relevant resources of resisting
the international community's pressures.

In such conditions, Armenia has to be consistent in its efforts of
disseminating the idea that the recognition of such an undeniable
fact may, instead of becoming an obstacle, serve as a turning point
not only towards the regulation of the Armenian-Turkish relations,
but also towards Turkeys internal democratization.

Moreover, the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the US Congress
may shake the positions of the forces that lay obstacles to Turkey's
modernization and European integration by way of breeding intolerance
towards the Armenian Issue and the Armenians.